Thailand’s economy could face a significant slowdown in 2025 if the United States maintains a 36% reciprocal tariff on Thai exports for more than six months, according to a report released by Krungsri Research. The think tank forecasts that, under this worst-case scenario, Thailand’s GDP growth could decline to between 1.5% and 1.8%, while export growth may stagnate year-on-year. The country risks losing ground to regional competitors such as Vietnam if it is subjected to higher tariffs.
The report notes that Thailand’s export performance in March 2025 reached a record high, with an estimated value of US$29.5 billion. The surge was attributed to an increase in orders from US importers seeking to bypass the tariff, which had been temporarily suspended for 90 days by the Trump administration.
Key sectors contributing to the spike included computers and accessories, which rose by 80.2%, circuit boards (up 41.5%), rubber (19.5%), air conditioners and parts (19.1%), machinery (17.3%), and automobiles and parts (5.6%). Overall, exports in the first quarter of the year grew by 15.2% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching a total value of US$81.5 billion.
Krungsri Research outlined three potential outcomes for Thailand’s economy depending on the duration and severity of US-imposed tariffs. If a 10% tariff remains in place throughout the year, GDP growth is expected to hover between 2.2% and 2.4%. A 36% tariff lasting three to six months would bring growth down to between 1.9% and 2.1%. However, the most severe impact would be felt if the full 36% tariff extends beyond six months, bringing GDP growth below 2%—a level no other ASEAN country is currently expected to reach this year under the same conditions.
Officials and researchers have yet to outline a formal policy response, though concern has been noted across economic and trade ministries.