As Srettha Thavisin’s tenure formed the new coalition government in August last year, the prime minister’s added role as the finance minister has largely faded into the background. His recent global engagements, spanning 14 countries in just six months, have drawn attention away from domestic economic concerns. Time Magazine’s recent feature, dubbing him “The Salesman,” captures his global diplomatic efforts.
Reports circulating suggest Srettha’s intent to offload the Finance Ministry’s responsibilities to a trusted aide of the influential Shinawatra family, who wields significant control over the ruling Pheu Thai Party. The imminent finance minister, tasked with leading the economic team comprising key ministers from different coalition parties, faces myriad challenges ahead.
One of the critical issues haunting Thailand’s economy is its prolonged sluggish growth, with rates stubbornly remaining below 2% for almost a decade. Supavud Saicheua, advisor to the Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group, expresses skepticism about the possibility of significant growth acceleration this year.
Of paramount concern is the looming threat of deflation, fueled by consecutive months of negative inflation. While the Bank of Thailand (BOT) assures that the economy remains on the recovery trajectory post-COVID-19, economists remain wary, urging for updated economic data to avert a recession.
China’s economic slowdown exacerbates worries, with its surplus production flooding global markets, depressing prices worldwide. This flood of cheap goods amplifies concerns of deflation in Thailand, adding pressure on the incoming finance minister and his economic team.
Central to the economic strategy under scrutiny is the proposed 500-billion-baht cash handout scheme, aiming to stimulate spending among Thai citizens. However, questions arise regarding its efficacy and funding sources. The BOT and the World Bank advocate for a targeted approach, directing aid only to those in need, contrasting the government’s plan to cover a significant portion of the population.
The fiscal implications are dire, with the government already grappling with high public debt nearing 62.5% of GDP. The recent passage of the overdue budget bill for fiscal year 2024 exacerbates concerns, as it includes a substantial deficit, further straining the country’s finances.
Amidst these economic woes, the issue of corporate governance in listed public companies compounds market uncertainties. Thailand’s stock market’s dismal performance, coupled with accounting scandals and corporate bond defaults, underscores the need for robust financial market reforms.
As Thailand charts its economic recovery path, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) remains pivotal. Despite optimism from the Board of Investment, uncertainties persist, echoing the World Bank’s modest growth projections for the country.
In addressing labor challenges, Thailand faces a shrinking workforce and a shortage of skilled labor. The imperative lies in finding solutions to ensure a sustainable labor market, possibly by opening avenues for skilled personnel and revamping existing labor policies.
The economic landscape ahead for Thailand’s new finance minister is undeniably daunting, marked by the specter of deflation, fiscal constraints, and the imperative for structural reforms to rejuvenate growth prospects. As the nation awaits the ministerial transition, the onus lies on effective policymaking and strategic economic maneuvers to navigate these turbulent times.