The recovery of the tourism sector is expected to continue, with state agencies now expecting an international arrival figure of about 8 million this year. This has compelled the Ministry of Finance to retain its GDP growth forecast of 3.5% for 2022.
The Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) indicates that rising farmers’ income will support a recovery in consumption. FPO Director-General Pornchai Thiraveja said this will be a positive factor on top of the tourism sector’s continual recovery. Private sector consumption is expected to grow by 4.8% and private sector investment by 5.7%. The value of exports is predicted to expand by 7.7%. Inflation is expected to grow to 6.5% due to heightened energy prices. Mr. Pornchai said that owing to these factors, the Ministry of Finance is keeping its GDP growth projection for 2022 at 3.5%.
He said one risk factor that may impact the Thai economy going forward is the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its effects on energy and commodity prices. Another is the volatility in the global financial market resulting from many central banks’ tightening of their monetary policy. This is especially true with the US Federal Reserve’s policy rate hike to suppress inflation. Uncertainties presented by the COVID-19 situation could also cause slowdowns in the economies of Thailand’s trading partners.